Stock Rumors for 10/31/06

Happy Halloween all!

We are evaluating some rumours that came in today. Look for a post in the afternoon

Portfolio Review 10/26/06

Thurs was a good day, A couple of stocks continued to show strength including WBSN, SEPR and CCBL. 5 of our stocks have gained 10% or more in less than a month. Happy trading!

Stock Rumors for 10/26/06

Sorry I've been out of pocket this week, I was at a conference and did not have access to email. Below is today's rumor!



Below is the rumor for today.... Happy and safe trading!!


NEW RUMORS:

Kinetic Concepts


STOCK: KCI
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/26: 33.80
CURRENT PRICE: 33.80
TAKEOVER PRICE: low 40's
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.00
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES:
Hearing chatter that KCI has been approached by a private equity firm to go private. KCI had a steep drop earlier in the year due to an unfavorable decision in a patent infringement lawsuit. Some analysts believe the company believes it can compete regardless of the decision and currently has a favorable valuation

---------------------------------------------------------------


EXISTING RUMORS:


New York Bancorp


STOCK: NYB
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/16: 16.74
CURRENT PRICE: 16.74
TAKEOVER PRICE: $20-21
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.00
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 35%
NOTES:
There was chatter about 4 months ago around a NYB takeover and we are hearing similar chatter that NYB will be taken over by a larger regional bank in the last few days. We'll watch the signals on this one to see if it pans out




TIBCO


STOCK: TIBX
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/12: 9.00
CURRENT PRICE: 9.00
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12-13
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.00
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES:
There is renewed chatter that Tibco could be taken over soon by a bigger player such as ORCL or IBM. In addition the Oct and Nov $10 calls were very strong today and there is talk that it has recently landed some of the high seven figure/low eight figure deals that have been discussed in the last 2 earnings conference calls




BIOVERIS


STOCK: BIOV
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/10: 9.00
CURRENT PRICE: 9.29
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12-14
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.29
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 35%
NOTES:
There is a some chatter that Bioveris is going to be acquired by a larger pharma company for its potentially lucrative and patented BV M-SERIES® products which provides a platform for biological measurements. Note that the volume on this stock is thin, so be careful



WESTERN DIGITAL


STOCK: WDC
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/9: 17.03
CURRENT PRICE: 16.93
TAKEOVER PRICE: $20-22
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.10
TIMELINE: within 4 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES:
There is a rumor a larger player is going to acquire Western Digital. The November call to put activity is high today



GENESIS MICROCHIP


STOCK: GNSS
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/5: 11.84
CURRENT PRICE: 11.98
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12+
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.14
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 55%
NOTES:
There is a rumor that Texas Instruments is looking to acquire GNSS


NVIDIA


STOCK: NVDA
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/4: 29.77
CURRENT PRICE: 32.48
TAKEOVER PRICE: $35+
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +2.71
TIMELINE: within 1 months
PROBABILITY: 55%
NOTES:
There is a very strong rumor that INTC is in talks to acquire NVDA in the mid 30's. The stock is up almost $2 today and the call volume is very high. As of 10/5, we have reduced probability to 55% based on the fact that some investment banks are saying this deal is not going to happen




TARRAGON


STOCK: TARR
RUMOR: LEVERAGED BUYOUT TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/3: 10.03
CURRENT PRICE: 11.38
TAKEOVER PRICE: $13-14
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.35
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES:
There is a rumor that there is a leveraged buyout talks in progress for Tarragon and it is led by the current chairman



ESPD


STOCK: ESPD
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/2: 9.20
CURRENT PRICE: 9.81
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.61
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 35%
NOTES:
Lots of takeover rumors are swirling about ESPD and on Friday the volume picked up on the stock. There has been a lot of consolidation in this sector. We'll continue to keep an eye on this stock for more signals


ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES INC


STOCK: ZBRA
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/28: 35.13
CURRENT PRICE: 37.06
TAKEOVER PRICE: low to mid $40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.93
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES:
With the consolidation in the RFID space, there is quite a bit of chatter that ZBRA is going to be acquired in the next 2 months and could already be in takeover talks (suitor still unknown). ZBRA also has an attractive patent portfolio that could be lucrative for a bigger player. Takeover value could be in low 40's




WINNEBAGO


STOCK: WGO
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/27: 32.05
CURRENT PRICE: 33.28
TAKEOVER PRICE: $36-40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.23
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 50%
NOTES: There has been speculation that Winnebago is in takeover talked due to its option implied volatility and its option volume which has consistently 4-6 times average volume. It is possible that with the recent pullback in gas prices that a potential suitor may see this as an appropriate time to pull the trigger before valuation increases



WEBSENSE


STOCK: WBSN
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY SYMC
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/27: 22.02
CURRENT PRICE: 23.51
TAKEOVER PRICE: $26-30
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.49
TIMELINE: within 4 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: With the recent consolidation in the network security space, There has been some heavy speculation that WebSense will be the next to fall with SYMC as the acquirer. With a forward PE around 20 and revenue growth > 20%, Websense's key stats compare favorably with similar players who have been acquired this year.





AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES


STOCK: ACLS
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY AMAT
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/26: 6.90
CURRENT PRICE: 7.51
TAKEOVER PRICE: $9-$9.50
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.61
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES: Axcelis Technologies delivers vital equipment, services and process expertise to the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Strong volume on 9/22 and good follow through on 9/25. We'll be tracking this for more signals



SEPRACOR


STOCK: SEPR
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY NVS
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/25: 46.60
CURRENT PRICE: 52.23
TAKEOVER PRICE: $55-$65
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +5.63
TIMELINE: within 1 month
PROBABILITY: 65%
NOTES: There has been quite a lot of speculation on Sepracor since Neurocrine Biosciences Indipilon didn't get FDA approval for its extended release version. Sepracor is currently trading at 22 times next year's earnings and their drug Lunesta could be lucrative to big pharma who can throw a much larger marketing budget toward the drug.


C-COR INCORPORATED


STOCK: CCBL
RUMOR: Unsolicited Bid of $12 on the table. Merril Lynch hired as an advisor
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/25: 8.61
CURRENT PRICE: 9.41
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.80
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 75%
NOTES: CCBL has a strong portfolio of broadband and on-demand products in use by a number of telecom firms such as ComCast and Verizon. Volume has been strong in September. As of 10/3 we have upped the probability on this one to 75%. We are hearing chatter that a deal will happen within a week.


BUILDING MATERIAL HLDC

STOCK: BMHC
RUMOR: Takeover rumors in the $40 range on the table. Home Depot a potential suitor
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED on 9/25: 25.99
CURRENT PRICE: 27.56
TAKEOVER PRICE: $40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.57
TIMELINE: within 1 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: BMHC has been under pressure since the housing decline but has stabilized recently due to takeover rumors. Option premiums have been high for the last month with heavy call buying on 9/24



VIROPHARMA

STOCK: VPHM
RUMOR: TAKEOVER BY A LARGER PHARMA COMPANY
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED on 9/25: 12.48
CURRENT PRICE: 12.14
TAKEOVER PRICE: $16-17
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.34
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: Viropharma has had some positive press at the end of August from early trial results of its drug HCV-796 and around the time some rumors started circulating that the company would be subject to a takeover. The option calls are still very active with the Oct 12.5 call volume outnumbering the puts 15-1



--------------------------------------------------------------

DROPPED OFF LIST (Rumors that go stale or go past the expected timeline are listed here):
NONE

Stock Rumors for 10/20/06

Nothing of interest today, see you next week! Also we will have some contests next week so stay tuned!

Stock Rumors for 10/19/06

No rumors as yet today, but we are evaluation some chatter on ACTC and some other stocks. Please check back later today. Please note that we are looking for quality, not quantity and we don't want to rush out rumors if we don't feel they are legitimate.

Stock Rumors for 10/18/06

We are evaluating a couple of rumors that just came in, Check back around noontime!

Stock Rumors for 10/17

There were no credible rumors today on a gloomy day on wall street. The good news is that even with today's downturn, 14 of our 16 stocks are in the green with VPHM breaking to the upside today.

Stock Rumors for 10/16/06

Below is the rumor for today.... Happy and safe trading!!


NEW RUMORS:

New York Bancorp


STOCK: NYB
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/16: 16.74
CURRENT PRICE: 16.74
TAKEOVER PRICE: $20-21
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.00
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 35%
NOTES:
There was chatter about 4 months ago around a NYB takeover and we are hearing similar chatter that NYB will be taken over by a larger regional bank in the last few days. We'll watch the signals on this one to see if it pans out


---------------------------------------------------------------


EXISTING RUMORS:


NEW RUMORS:

TIBCO


STOCK: TIBX
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/12: 9.00
CURRENT PRICE: 9.00
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12-13
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.00
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES:
There is renewed chatter that Tibco could be taken over soon by a bigger player such as ORCL or IBM. In addition the Oct and Nov $10 calls were very strong today and there is talk that it has recently landed some of the high seven figure/low eight figure deals that have been discussed in the last 2 earnings conference calls




BIOVERIS


STOCK: BIOV
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/10: 9.00
CURRENT PRICE: 9.29
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12-14
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.29
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 35%
NOTES:
There is a some chatter that Bioveris is going to be acquired by a larger pharma company for its potentially lucrative and patented BV M-SERIES® products which provides a platform for biological measurements. Note that the volume on this stock is thin, so be careful



WESTERN DIGITAL


STOCK: WDC
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/9: 17.03
CURRENT PRICE: 16.93
TAKEOVER PRICE: $20-22
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.10
TIMELINE: within 4 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES:
There is a rumor a larger player is going to acquire Western Digital. The November call to put activity is high today



GENESIS MICROCHIP


STOCK: GNSS
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/5: 11.84
CURRENT PRICE: 11.98
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12+
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.14
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 55%
NOTES:
There is a rumor that Texas Instruments is looking to acquire GNSS


NVIDIA


STOCK: NVDA
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/4: 29.77
CURRENT PRICE: 32.48
TAKEOVER PRICE: $35+
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +2.71
TIMELINE: within 1 months
PROBABILITY: 55%
NOTES:
There is a very strong rumor that INTC is in talks to acquire NVDA in the mid 30's. The stock is up almost $2 today and the call volume is very high. As of 10/5, we have reduced probability to 55% based on the fact that some investment banks are saying this deal is not going to happen




TARRAGON


STOCK: TARR
RUMOR: LEVERAGED BUYOUT TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/3: 10.03
CURRENT PRICE: 11.38
TAKEOVER PRICE: $13-14
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.35
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES:
There is a rumor that there is a leveraged buyout talks in progress for Tarragon and it is led by the current chairman



ESPD


STOCK: ESPD
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/2: 9.20
CURRENT PRICE: 9.81
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.61
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 35%
NOTES:
Lots of takeover rumors are swirling about ESPD and on Friday the volume picked up on the stock. There has been a lot of consolidation in this sector. We'll continue to keep an eye on this stock for more signals


ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES INC


STOCK: ZBRA
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/28: 35.13
CURRENT PRICE: 37.06
TAKEOVER PRICE: low to mid $40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.93
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES:
With the consolidation in the RFID space, there is quite a bit of chatter that ZBRA is going to be acquired in the next 2 months and could already be in takeover talks (suitor still unknown). ZBRA also has an attractive patent portfolio that could be lucrative for a bigger player. Takeover value could be in low 40's




WINNEBAGO


STOCK: WGO
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/27: 32.05
CURRENT PRICE: 33.28
TAKEOVER PRICE: $36-40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.23
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 50%
NOTES: There has been speculation that Winnebago is in takeover talked due to its option implied volatility and its option volume which has consistently 4-6 times average volume. It is possible that with the recent pullback in gas prices that a potential suitor may see this as an appropriate time to pull the trigger before valuation increases



WEBSENSE


STOCK: WBSN
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY SYMC
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/27: 22.02
CURRENT PRICE: 23.51
TAKEOVER PRICE: $26-30
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.49
TIMELINE: within 4 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: With the recent consolidation in the network security space, There has been some heavy speculation that WebSense will be the next to fall with SYMC as the acquirer. With a forward PE around 20 and revenue growth > 20%, Websense's key stats compare favorably with similar players who have been acquired this year.





AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES


STOCK: ACLS
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY AMAT
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/26: 6.90
CURRENT PRICE: 7.51
TAKEOVER PRICE: $9-$9.50
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.61
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES: Axcelis Technologies delivers vital equipment, services and process expertise to the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Strong volume on 9/22 and good follow through on 9/25. We'll be tracking this for more signals



SEPRACOR


STOCK: SEPR
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY NVS
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/25: 46.60
CURRENT PRICE: 52.23
TAKEOVER PRICE: $55-$65
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +5.63
TIMELINE: within 1 month
PROBABILITY: 65%
NOTES: There has been quite a lot of speculation on Sepracor since Neurocrine Biosciences Indipilon didn't get FDA approval for its extended release version. Sepracor is currently trading at 22 times next year's earnings and their drug Lunesta could be lucrative to big pharma who can throw a much larger marketing budget toward the drug.


C-COR INCORPORATED


STOCK: CCBL
RUMOR: Unsolicited Bid of $12 on the table. Merril Lynch hired as an advisor
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/25: 8.61
CURRENT PRICE: 9.41
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.80
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 75%
NOTES: CCBL has a strong portfolio of broadband and on-demand products in use by a number of telecom firms such as ComCast and Verizon. Volume has been strong in September. As of 10/3 we have upped the probability on this one to 75%. We are hearing chatter that a deal will happen within a week.


BUILDING MATERIAL HLDC

STOCK: BMHC
RUMOR: Takeover rumors in the $40 range on the table. Home Depot a potential suitor
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED on 9/25: 25.99
CURRENT PRICE: 27.56
TAKEOVER PRICE: $40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.57
TIMELINE: within 1 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: BMHC has been under pressure since the housing decline but has stabilized recently due to takeover rumors. Option premiums have been high for the last month with heavy call buying on 9/24



VIROPHARMA

STOCK: VPHM
RUMOR: TAKEOVER BY A LARGER PHARMA COMPANY
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED on 9/25: 12.48
CURRENT PRICE: 12.14
TAKEOVER PRICE: $16-17
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.34
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: Viropharma has had some positive press at the end of August from early trial results of its drug HCV-796 and around the time some rumors started circulating that the company would be subject to a takeover. The option calls are still very active with the Oct 12.5 call volume outnumbering the puts 15-1



--------------------------------------------------------------

DROPPED OFF LIST (Rumors that go stale or go past the expected timeline are listed here):
NONE

Stock Rumors for 10/12/06

Another late posting as blogger seemed to be down earlier today. 12 of our 14 rumor stocks are in the green with TARR and CCBL both breaking to the upside! Our rumor today is listed below.
Please spread the word about this blog!


NEW RUMORS:

TIBCO


STOCK: TIBX
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/12: 9.00
CURRENT PRICE: 9.00
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12-13
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.00
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES:
There is renewed chatter that Tibco could be taken over soon by a bigger player such as ORCL or IBM. In addition the Oct and Nov $10 calls were very strong today and there is talk that it has recently landed some of the high seven figure/low eight figure deals that have been discussed in the last 2 earnings conference calls

---------------------------------------------------------------


EXISTING RUMORS:


BIOVERIS


STOCK: BIOV
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/10: 9.00
CURRENT PRICE: 9.29
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12-14
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.29
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 35%
NOTES:
There is a some chatter that Bioveris is going to be acquired by a larger pharma company for its potentially lucrative and patented BV M-SERIES® products which provides a platform for biological measurements. Note that the volume on this stock is thin, so be careful



WESTERN DIGITAL


STOCK: WDC
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/9: 17.03
CURRENT PRICE: 16.93
TAKEOVER PRICE: $20-22
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.10
TIMELINE: within 4 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES:
There is a rumor a larger player is going to acquire Western Digital. The November call to put activity is high today



GENESIS MICROCHIP


STOCK: GNSS
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/5: 11.84
CURRENT PRICE: 11.98
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12+
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.14
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 55%
NOTES:
There is a rumor that Texas Instruments is looking to acquire GNSS


NVIDIA


STOCK: NVDA
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/4: 29.77
CURRENT PRICE: 32.48
TAKEOVER PRICE: $35+
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +2.71
TIMELINE: within 1 months
PROBABILITY: 55%
NOTES:
There is a very strong rumor that INTC is in talks to acquire NVDA in the mid 30's. The stock is up almost $2 today and the call volume is very high. As of 10/5, we have reduced probability to 55% based on the fact that some investment banks are saying this deal is not going to happen




TARRAGON


STOCK: TARR
RUMOR: LEVERAGED BUYOUT TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/3: 10.03
CURRENT PRICE: 11.38
TAKEOVER PRICE: $13-14
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.35
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES:
There is a rumor that there is a leveraged buyout talks in progress for Tarragon and it is led by the current chairman



ESPD


STOCK: ESPD
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/2: 9.20
CURRENT PRICE: 9.81
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.61
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 35%
NOTES:
Lots of takeover rumors are swirling about ESPD and on Friday the volume picked up on the stock. There has been a lot of consolidation in this sector. We'll continue to keep an eye on this stock for more signals


ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES INC


STOCK: ZBRA
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/28: 35.13
CURRENT PRICE: 37.06
TAKEOVER PRICE: low to mid $40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.93
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES:
With the consolidation in the RFID space, there is quite a bit of chatter that ZBRA is going to be acquired in the next 2 months and could already be in takeover talks (suitor still unknown). ZBRA also has an attractive patent portfolio that could be lucrative for a bigger player. Takeover value could be in low 40's




WINNEBAGO


STOCK: WGO
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/27: 32.05
CURRENT PRICE: 33.28
TAKEOVER PRICE: $36-40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.23
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 50%
NOTES: There has been speculation that Winnebago is in takeover talked due to its option implied volatility and its option volume which has consistently 4-6 times average volume. It is possible that with the recent pullback in gas prices that a potential suitor may see this as an appropriate time to pull the trigger before valuation increases



WEBSENSE


STOCK: WBSN
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY SYMC
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/27: 22.02
CURRENT PRICE: 23.51
TAKEOVER PRICE: $26-30
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.49
TIMELINE: within 4 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: With the recent consolidation in the network security space, There has been some heavy speculation that WebSense will be the next to fall with SYMC as the acquirer. With a forward PE around 20 and revenue growth > 20%, Websense's key stats compare favorably with similar players who have been acquired this year.





AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES


STOCK: ACLS
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY AMAT
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/26: 6.90
CURRENT PRICE: 7.51
TAKEOVER PRICE: $9-$9.50
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.61
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES: Axcelis Technologies delivers vital equipment, services and process expertise to the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Strong volume on 9/22 and good follow through on 9/25. We'll be tracking this for more signals



SEPRACOR


STOCK: SEPR
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY NVS
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/25: 46.60
CURRENT PRICE: 52.23
TAKEOVER PRICE: $55-$65
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +5.63
TIMELINE: within 1 month
PROBABILITY: 65%
NOTES: There has been quite a lot of speculation on Sepracor since Neurocrine Biosciences Indipilon didn't get FDA approval for its extended release version. Sepracor is currently trading at 22 times next year's earnings and their drug Lunesta could be lucrative to big pharma who can throw a much larger marketing budget toward the drug.


C-COR INCORPORATED


STOCK: CCBL
RUMOR: Unsolicited Bid of $12 on the table. Merril Lynch hired as an advisor
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/25: 8.61
CURRENT PRICE: 9.41
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.80
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 75%
NOTES: CCBL has a strong portfolio of broadband and on-demand products in use by a number of telecom firms such as ComCast and Verizon. Volume has been strong in September. As of 10/3 we have upped the probability on this one to 75%. We are hearing chatter that a deal will happen within a week.


BUILDING MATERIAL HLDC

STOCK: BMHC
RUMOR: Takeover rumors in the $40 range on the table. Home Depot a potential suitor
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED on 9/25: 25.99
CURRENT PRICE: 27.56
TAKEOVER PRICE: $40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.57
TIMELINE: within 1 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: BMHC has been under pressure since the housing decline but has stabilized recently due to takeover rumors. Option premiums have been high for the last month with heavy call buying on 9/24



VIROPHARMA

STOCK: VPHM
RUMOR: TAKEOVER BY A LARGER PHARMA COMPANY
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED on 9/25: 12.48
CURRENT PRICE: 12.14
TAKEOVER PRICE: $16-17
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.34
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: Viropharma has had some positive press at the end of August from early trial results of its drug HCV-796 and around the time some rumors started circulating that the company would be subject to a takeover. The option calls are still very active with the Oct 12.5 call volume outnumbering the puts 15-1



--------------------------------------------------------------

DROPPED OFF LIST (Rumors that go stale or go past the expected timeline are listed here):
NONE

Ridiculous

Sometimes I get emailed a rumor that is so ridiculous I have to share it. Sorry "billychenchoi", I guess you may never read my blog again but that is ok, this is too funny to keep to myself!

wrote:
Date: Wed, 11 Oct 2006 11:07:06 -0700 (PDT)
From: billychenchoi@yahoo.com
Subject: rumoors
To: dailymarketbuzz@yahoo.com
I work for Merrll Lynch and I may have hot rumr with one company call SOHU, it is trade on nsdaq. It will be buy for $30 this week please post on your website now!!!!. This is hot tip please post..

BC-------

Stock Rumors for 10/11/06

There were no credible rumors during the day, but one came through after hours, I am evaluating it now and may post it later tonight or tomorrow morning

Stock Rumors for 10/10/06

I apologize for the late posting tonight but today's rumor is posted below. This is a good time to reflect on our rumor portfolio....Currently, 13 of our 14 rumor stocks are in the green. There is definitely statistical significance with a winning percentage of 93% and currently the only laggard being ViroPharma. Okay fine, I concede the market has been strong as well so we'll see how this metric morphs over time. I would also like to thank the readers of this blog, it seems the readership is growing at a nice clip as well.


NEW RUMORS:

BIOVERIS


STOCK: BIOV
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/10: 9.00
CURRENT PRICE: 9.00
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12-14
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.00
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 35%
NOTES:
There is a some chatter that Bioveris is going to be acquired by a larger pharma company for its potentially lucrative and patented BV M-SERIES® products which provides a platform for biological measurements. Note that the volume on this stock is thin, so be careful

---------------------------------------------------------------


EXISTING RUMORS:



WESTERN DIGITAL


STOCK: WDC
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/9: 17.03
CURRENT PRICE: 17.05
TAKEOVER PRICE: $20-22
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.02
TIMELINE: within 4 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES:
There is a rumor a larger player is going to acquire Western Digital. The November call to put activity is high today



GENESIS MICROCHIP


STOCK: GNSS
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/5: 11.84
CURRENT PRICE: 11.91
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12+
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.07
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 55%
NOTES:
There is a rumor that Texas Instruments is looking to acquire GNSS






NVIDIA


STOCK: NVDA
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/4: 29.77
CURRENT PRICE: 32.17
TAKEOVER PRICE: $35+
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +2.40
TIMELINE: within 1 months
PROBABILITY: 55%
NOTES:
There is a very strong rumor that INTC is in talks to acquire NVDA in the mid 30's. The stock is up almost $2 today and the call volume is very high. As of 10/5, we have reduced probability to 55% based on the fact that some investment banks are saying this deal is not going to happen




TARRAGON


STOCK: TARR
RUMOR: LEVERAGED BUYOUT TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/3: 10.03
CURRENT PRICE: 10.18
TAKEOVER PRICE: $13-14
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.15
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES:
There is a rumor that there is a leveraged buyout talks in progress for Tarragon and it is led by the current chairman



ESPD


STOCK: ESPD
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/2: 9.20
CURRENT PRICE: 9.70
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.50
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 35%
NOTES:
Lots of takeover rumors are swirling about ESPD and on Friday the volume picked up on the stock. There has been a lot of consolidation in this sector. We'll continue to keep an eye on this stock for more signals


ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES INC


STOCK: ZBRA
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/28: 35.13
CURRENT PRICE: 36.40
TAKEOVER PRICE: low to mid $40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.27
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES:
With the consolidation in the RFID space, there is quite a bit of chatter that ZBRA is going to be acquired in the next 2 months and could already be in takeover talks (suitor still unknown). ZBRA also has an attractive patent portfolio that could be lucrative for a bigger player. Takeover value could be in low 40's




WINNEBAGO


STOCK: WGO
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/27: 32.05
CURRENT PRICE: 34.98
TAKEOVER PRICE: $36-40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +2.93
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 50%
NOTES: There has been speculation that Winnebago is in takeover talked due to its option implied volatility and its option volume which has consistently 4-6 times average volume. It is possible that with the recent pullback in gas prices that a potential suitor may see this as an appropriate time to pull the trigger before valuation increases



WEBSENSE


STOCK: WBSN
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY SYMC
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/27: 22.02
CURRENT PRICE: 22.87
TAKEOVER PRICE: $26-30
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.85
TIMELINE: within 4 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: With the recent consolidation in the network security space, There has been some heavy speculation that WebSense will be the next to fall with SYMC as the acquirer. With a forward PE around 20 and revenue growth > 20%, Websense's key stats compare favorably with similar players who have been acquired this year.





AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES


STOCK: ACLS
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY AMAT
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/26: 6.90
CURRENT PRICE: 7.40
TAKEOVER PRICE: $9-$9.50
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.50
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES: Axcelis Technologies delivers vital equipment, services and process expertise to the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Strong volume on 9/22 and good follow through on 9/25. We'll be tracking this for more signals



SEPRACOR


STOCK: SEPR
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY NVS
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/25: 46.60
CURRENT PRICE: 50.90
TAKEOVER PRICE: $55-$65
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +4.30
TIMELINE: within 1 month
PROBABILITY: 65%
NOTES: There has been quite a lot of speculation on Sepracor since Neurocrine Biosciences Indipilon didn't get FDA approval for its extended release version. Sepracor is currently trading at 22 times next year's earnings and their drug Lunesta could be lucrative to big pharma who can throw a much larger marketing budget toward the drug.


C-COR INCORPORATED


STOCK: CCBL
RUMOR: Unsolicited Bid of $12 on the table. Merril Lynch hired as an advisor
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/25: 8.61
CURRENT PRICE: 8.98
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.37
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 75%
NOTES: CCBL has a strong portfolio of broadband and on-demand products in use by a number of telecom firms such as ComCast and Verizon. Volume has been strong in September. As of 10/3 we have upped the probability on this one to 75%. We are hearing chatter that a deal will happen within a week.


BUILDING MATERIAL HLDC

STOCK: BMHC
RUMOR: Takeover rumors in the $40 range on the table. Home Depot a potential suitor
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED on 9/25: 25.99
CURRENT PRICE: 27.59
TAKEOVER PRICE: $40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.60
TIMELINE: within 1 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: BMHC has been under pressure since the housing decline but has stabilized recently due to takeover rumors. Option premiums have been high for the last month with heavy call buying on 9/24



VIROPHARMA

STOCK: VPHM
RUMOR: TAKEOVER BY A LARGER PHARMA COMPANY
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED on 9/25: 12.48
CURRENT PRICE: 12.03
TAKEOVER PRICE: $16-17
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.45
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: Viropharma has had some positive press at the end of August from early trial results of its drug HCV-796 and around the time some rumors started circulating that the company would be subject to a takeover. The option calls are still very active with the Oct 12.5 call volume outnumbering the puts 15-1



--------------------------------------------------------------

DROPPED OFF LIST (Rumors that go stale or go past the expected timeline are listed here):
NONE

Stock Rumors for 10/9/06

NEW RUMORS:


WESTERN DIGITAL


STOCK: WDC
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/9: 17.03
CURRENT PRICE: 17.05
TAKEOVER PRICE: $20-22
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.02
TIMELINE: within 4 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES:
There is a rumor a larger player is going to acquire Western Digital. The November call to put activity is high today


---------------------------------------------------------------


EXISTING RUMORS:


GENESIS MICROCHIP


STOCK: GNSS
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/5: 11.84
CURRENT PRICE: 11.91
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12+
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.07
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 55%
NOTES:
There is a rumor that Texas Instruments is looking to acquire GNSS






NVIDIA


STOCK: NVDA
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/4: 29.77
CURRENT PRICE: 32.17
TAKEOVER PRICE: $35+
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +2.40
TIMELINE: within 1 months
PROBABILITY: 55%
NOTES:
There is a very strong rumor that INTC is in talks to acquire NVDA in the mid 30's. The stock is up almost $2 today and the call volume is very high. As of 10/5, we have reduced probability to 55% based on the fact that some investment banks are saying this deal is not going to happen




TARRAGON


STOCK: TARR
RUMOR: LEVERAGED BUYOUT TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/3: 10.03
CURRENT PRICE: 10.18
TAKEOVER PRICE: $13-14
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.15
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES:
There is a rumor that there is a leveraged buyout talks in progress for Tarragon and it is led by the current chairman



ESPD


STOCK: ESPD
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/2: 9.20
CURRENT PRICE: 9.70
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.50
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 35%
NOTES:
Lots of takeover rumors are swirling about ESPD and on Friday the volume picked up on the stock. There has been a lot of consolidation in this sector. We'll continue to keep an eye on this stock for more signals


ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES INC


STOCK: ZBRA
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/28: 35.13
CURRENT PRICE: 36.40
TAKEOVER PRICE: low to mid $40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.27
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES:
With the consolidation in the RFID space, there is quite a bit of chatter that ZBRA is going to be acquired in the next 2 months and could already be in takeover talks (suitor still unknown). ZBRA also has an attractive patent portfolio that could be lucrative for a bigger player. Takeover value could be in low 40's




WINNEBAGO


STOCK: WGO
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/27: 32.05
CURRENT PRICE: 34.98
TAKEOVER PRICE: $36-40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +2.93
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 50%
NOTES: There has been speculation that Winnebago is in takeover talked due to its option implied volatility and its option volume which has consistently 4-6 times average volume. It is possible that with the recent pullback in gas prices that a potential suitor may see this as an appropriate time to pull the trigger before valuation increases



WEBSENSE


STOCK: WBSN
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY SYMC
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/27: 22.02
CURRENT PRICE: 22.87
TAKEOVER PRICE: $26-30
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.85
TIMELINE: within 4 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: With the recent consolidation in the network security space, There has been some heavy speculation that WebSense will be the next to fall with SYMC as the acquirer. With a forward PE around 20 and revenue growth > 20%, Websense's key stats compare favorably with similar players who have been acquired this year.





AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES


STOCK: ACLS
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY AMAT
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/26: 6.90
CURRENT PRICE: 7.40
TAKEOVER PRICE: $9-$9.50
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.50
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES: Axcelis Technologies delivers vital equipment, services and process expertise to the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Strong volume on 9/22 and good follow through on 9/25. We'll be tracking this for more signals



SEPRACOR


STOCK: SEPR
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY NVS
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/25: 46.60
CURRENT PRICE: 50.90
TAKEOVER PRICE: $55-$65
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +4.30
TIMELINE: within 1 month
PROBABILITY: 65%
NOTES: There has been quite a lot of speculation on Sepracor since Neurocrine Biosciences Indipilon didn't get FDA approval for its extended release version. Sepracor is currently trading at 22 times next year's earnings and their drug Lunesta could be lucrative to big pharma who can throw a much larger marketing budget toward the drug.


C-COR INCORPORATED


STOCK: CCBL
RUMOR: Unsolicited Bid of $12 on the table. Merril Lynch hired as an advisor
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/25: 8.61
CURRENT PRICE: 8.98
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.37
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 75%
NOTES: CCBL has a strong portfolio of broadband and on-demand products in use by a number of telecom firms such as ComCast and Verizon. Volume has been strong in September. As of 10/3 we have upped the probability on this one to 75%. We are hearing chatter that a deal will happen within a week.


BUILDING MATERIAL HLDC

STOCK: BMHC
RUMOR: Takeover rumors in the $40 range on the table. Home Depot a potential suitor
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED on 9/25: 25.99
CURRENT PRICE: 27.59
TAKEOVER PRICE: $40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.60
TIMELINE: within 1 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: BMHC has been under pressure since the housing decline but has stabilized recently due to takeover rumors. Option premiums have been high for the last month with heavy call buying on 9/24



VIROPHARMA

STOCK: VPHM
RUMOR: TAKEOVER BY A LARGER PHARMA COMPANY
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED on 9/25: 12.48
CURRENT PRICE: 12.03
TAKEOVER PRICE: $16-17
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.45
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: Viropharma has had some positive press at the end of August from early trial results of its drug HCV-796 and around the time some rumors started circulating that the company would be subject to a takeover. The option calls are still very active with the Oct 12.5 call volume outnumbering the puts 15-1



--------------------------------------------------------------

DROPPED OFF LIST (Rumors that go stale or go past the expected timeline are listed here):
NONE

Stock Rumors for 10/06/06

No solid rumors today as yet, Lets pick this up again on Monday!
Heard some takeover chatter on SIFY and going private chatter on ATHR but still evaluating these.

Stock Rumors for 10/5/06

For those who made some money off NVDA yesterday, there is chatter today that there is NO deal, so please be smart and take some money off the table or mitigate risk.


NEW RUMORS:


GENESIS MICROCHIP


STOCK:
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/5: 11.84
CURRENT PRICE: 11.84
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12+
% CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.00%
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 55%
NOTES:
There is a rumor that Texas Instruments is looking to acquire GNSS


---------------------------------------------------------------


EXISTING RUMORS:


NVIDIA


STOCK: TARR
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/4: 29.77
CURRENT PRICE: 29.77
TAKEOVER PRICE: $35+
% CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.00%
TIMELINE: within 1 months
PROBABILITY: 55%
NOTES:
There is a very strong rumor that INTC is in talks to acquire NVDA in the mid 30's. The stock is up almost $2 today and the call volume is very high. As of 10/5, we have reduced probability to 55% based on the fact that some investment banks are saying this deal is not going to happen




TARRAGON


STOCK: TARR
RUMOR: LEVERAGED BUYOUT TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/3: 10.03
CURRENT PRICE: 10.03
TAKEOVER PRICE: $13-14
% CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.00%
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES:
There is a rumor that there is a leveraged buyout talks in progress for Tarragon and it is led by the current chairman



ESPD


STOCK: ESPD
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/2: 9.20
CURRENT PRICE: 9.10
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.10
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 35%
NOTES:
Lots of takeover rumors are swirling about ESPD and on Friday the volume picked up on the stock. There has been a lot of consolidation in this sector. We'll continue to keep an eye on this stock for more signals


ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES INC


STOCK: ZBRA
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/28: 35.13
CURRENT PRICE: 35.29
TAKEOVER PRICE: low to mid $40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.16
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES:
With the consolidation in the RFID space, there is quite a bit of chatter that ZBRA is going to be acquired in the next 2 months and could already be in takeover talks (suitor still unknown). ZBRA also has an attractive patent portfolio that could be lucrative for a bigger player. Takeover value could be in low 40's




WINNEBAGO


STOCK: WGO
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/27: 32.05
CURRENT PRICE: 31.65
TAKEOVER PRICE: $36-40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.40
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 50%
NOTES: There has been speculation that Winnebago is in takeover talked due to its option implied volatility and its option volume which has consistently 4-6 times average volume. It is possible that with the recent pullback in gas prices that a potential suitor may see this as an appropriate time to pull the trigger before valuation increases



WEBSENSE


STOCK: WBSN
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY SYMC
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/27: 22.02
CURRENT PRICE: 21.32
TAKEOVER PRICE: $26-30
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.70
TIMELINE: within 4 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: With the recent consolidation in the network security space, There has been some heavy speculation that WebSense will be the next to fall with SYMC as the acquirer. With a forward PE around 20 and revenue growth > 20%, Websense's key stats compare favorably with similar players who have been acquired this year.





AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES


STOCK: ACLS
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY AMAT
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/26: 6.90
CURRENT PRICE: 6.96
TAKEOVER PRICE: $9-$9.50
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.06
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES: Axcelis Technologies delivers vital equipment, services and process expertise to the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Strong volume on 9/22 and good follow through on 9/25. We'll be tracking this for more signals



SEPRACOR


STOCK: SEPR
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY NVS
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/25: 46.60
CURRENT PRICE: 48.88
TAKEOVER PRICE: $55-$65
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +2.28
TIMELINE: within 1 month
PROBABILITY: 65%
NOTES: There has been quite a lot of speculation on Sepracor since Neurocrine Biosciences Indipilon didn't get FDA approval for its extended release version. Sepracor is currently trading at 22 times next year's earnings and their drug Lunesta could be lucrative to big pharma who can throw a much larger marketing budget toward the drug.


C-COR INCORPORATED


STOCK: CCBL
RUMOR: Unsolicited Bid of $12 on the table. Merril Lynch hired as an advisor
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/25: 8.61
CURRENT PRICE: 9.04
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.43
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 75%
NOTES: CCBL has a strong portfolio of broadband and on-demand products in use by a number of telecom firms such as ComCast and Verizon. Volume has been strong in September. As of 10/3 we have upped the probability on this one to 75%. We are hearing chatter that a deal will happen within a week.


BUILDING MATERIAL HLDC

STOCK: BMHC
RUMOR: Takeover rumors in the $40 range on the table. Home Depot a potential suitor
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED on 9/25: 25.99
CURRENT PRICE: 25.34
TAKEOVER PRICE: $40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.65
TIMELINE: within 1 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: BMHC has been under pressure since the housing decline but has stabilized recently due to takeover rumors. Option premiums have been high for the last month with heavy call buying on 9/24



VIROPHARMA

STOCK: VPHM
RUMOR: TAKEOVER BY A LARGER PHARMA COMPANY
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED on 9/25: 12.48
CURRENT PRICE: 11.94
TAKEOVER PRICE: $16-17
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.54
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: Viropharma has had some positive press at the end of August from early trial results of its drug HCV-796 and around the time some rumors started circulating that the company would be subject to a takeover. The option calls are still very active with the Oct 12.5 call volume outnumbering the puts 15-1



--------------------------------------------------------------

DROPPED OFF LIST (Rumors that go stale or go past the expected timeline are listed here):
NONE

Stock Rumors for 10/4/06

NEW RUMORS:

Below is the rumor for today... This one is pretty strong!

NVIDIA


STOCK: TARR
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/4: 29.77
CURRENT PRICE: 29.77
TAKEOVER PRICE: $35+
% CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.00%
TIMELINE: within 1 months
PROBABILITY: 75%
NOTES:
There is a very strong rumor that INTC is in talks to acquire NVDA in the mid 30's. The stock is up almost $2 today and the call volume is very high


---------------------------------------------------------------


EXISTING RUMORS:


TARRAGON


STOCK: TARR
RUMOR: LEVERAGED BUYOUT TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/3: 10.03
CURRENT PRICE: 10.03
TAKEOVER PRICE: $13-14
% CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.00%
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES:
There is a rumor that there is a leveraged buyout talks in progress for Tarragon and it is led by the current chairman



ESPD


STOCK: ESPD
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/2: 9.20
CURRENT PRICE: 9.10
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.10
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 35%
NOTES:
Lots of takeover rumors are swirling about ESPD and on Friday the volume picked up on the stock. There has been a lot of consolidation in this sector. We'll continue to keep an eye on this stock for more signals


ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES INC


STOCK: ZBRA
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/28: 35.13
CURRENT PRICE: 35.29
TAKEOVER PRICE: low to mid $40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.16
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES:
With the consolidation in the RFID space, there is quite a bit of chatter that ZBRA is going to be acquired in the next 2 months and could already be in takeover talks (suitor still unknown). ZBRA also has an attractive patent portfolio that could be lucrative for a bigger player. Takeover value could be in low 40's




WINNEBAGO


STOCK: WGO
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/27: 32.05
CURRENT PRICE: 31.65
TAKEOVER PRICE: $36-40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.40
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 50%
NOTES: There has been speculation that Winnebago is in takeover talked due to its option implied volatility and its option volume which has consistently 4-6 times average volume. It is possible that with the recent pullback in gas prices that a potential suitor may see this as an appropriate time to pull the trigger before valuation increases



WEBSENSE


STOCK: WBSN
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY SYMC
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/27: 22.02
CURRENT PRICE: 21.32
TAKEOVER PRICE: $26-30
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.70
TIMELINE: within 4 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: With the recent consolidation in the network security space, There has been some heavy speculation that WebSense will be the next to fall with SYMC as the acquirer. With a forward PE around 20 and revenue growth > 20%, Websense's key stats compare favorably with similar players who have been acquired this year.





AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES


STOCK: ACLS
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY AMAT
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/26: 6.90
CURRENT PRICE: 6.96
TAKEOVER PRICE: $9-$9.50
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.06
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES: Axcelis Technologies delivers vital equipment, services and process expertise to the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Strong volume on 9/22 and good follow through on 9/25. We'll be tracking this for more signals



SEPRACOR


STOCK: SEPR
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY NVS
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/25: 46.60
CURRENT PRICE: 48.88
TAKEOVER PRICE: $55-$65
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +2.28
TIMELINE: within 1 month
PROBABILITY: 65%
NOTES: There has been quite a lot of speculation on Sepracor since Neurocrine Biosciences Indipilon didn't get FDA approval for its extended release version. Sepracor is currently trading at 22 times next year's earnings and their drug Lunesta could be lucrative to big pharma who can throw a much larger marketing budget toward the drug.


C-COR INCORPORATED


STOCK: CCBL
RUMOR: Unsolicited Bid of $12 on the table. Merril Lynch hired as an advisor
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/25: 8.61
CURRENT PRICE: 9.04
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.43
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 75%
NOTES: CCBL has a strong portfolio of broadband and on-demand products in use by a number of telecom firms such as ComCast and Verizon. Volume has been strong in September. As of 10/3 we have upped the probability on this one to 75%. We are hearing chatter that a deal will happen within a week.


BUILDING MATERIAL HLDC

STOCK: BMHC
RUMOR: Takeover rumors in the $40 range on the table. Home Depot a potential suitor
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED on 9/25: 25.99
CURRENT PRICE: 25.34
TAKEOVER PRICE: $40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.65
TIMELINE: within 1 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: BMHC has been under pressure since the housing decline but has stabilized recently due to takeover rumors. Option premiums have been high for the last month with heavy call buying on 9/24



VIROPHARMA

STOCK: VPHM
RUMOR: TAKEOVER BY A LARGER PHARMA COMPANY
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED on 9/25: 12.48
CURRENT PRICE: 11.94
TAKEOVER PRICE: $16-17
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.54
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: Viropharma has had some positive press at the end of August from early trial results of its drug HCV-796 and around the time some rumors started circulating that the company would be subject to a takeover. The option calls are still very active with the Oct 12.5 call volume outnumbering the puts 15-1



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DROPPED OFF LIST (Rumors that go stale or go past the expected timeline are listed here):
NONE

Stock Rumors for 10/3/06

NEW RUMORS:

Yesterday both CCBL and SEPR showed strength in a weak market. Maybe the takeover for those two companies is around the corner. Today's rumor is listed below! Happy Trading

TARRAGON


STOCK: TARR
RUMOR: LEVERAGED BUYOUT TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/3: 10.03
CURRENT PRICE: 10.03
TAKEOVER PRICE: $13-14
% CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.00%
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES:
There is a rumor that there is a leveraged buyout talks in progress for Tarragon and it is led by the current chairman


---------------------------------------------------------------


EXISTING RUMORS:


ESPD


STOCK: ESPD
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/2: 9.20
CURRENT PRICE: 9.10
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.10
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 35%
NOTES:
Lots of takeover rumors are swirling about ESPD and on Friday the volume picked up on the stock. There has been a lot of consolidation in this sector. We'll continue to keep an eye on this stock for more signals


ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES INC


STOCK: ZBRA
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/28: 35.13
CURRENT PRICE: 35.29
TAKEOVER PRICE: low to mid $40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.16
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES:
With the consolidation in the RFID space, there is quite a bit of chatter that ZBRA is going to be acquired in the next 2 months and could already be in takeover talks (suitor still unknown). ZBRA also has an attractive patent portfolio that could be lucrative for a bigger player. Takeover value could be in low 40's




WINNEBAGO


STOCK: WGO
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/27: 32.05
CURRENT PRICE: 31.65
TAKEOVER PRICE: $36-40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.40
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 50%
NOTES: There has been speculation that Winnebago is in takeover talked due to its option implied volatility and its option volume which has consistently 4-6 times average volume. It is possible that with the recent pullback in gas prices that a potential suitor may see this as an appropriate time to pull the trigger before valuation increases



WEBSENSE


STOCK: WBSN
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY SYMC
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/27: 22.02
CURRENT PRICE: 21.32
TAKEOVER PRICE: $26-30
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.70
TIMELINE: within 4 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: With the recent consolidation in the network security space, There has been some heavy speculation that WebSense will be the next to fall with SYMC as the acquirer. With a forward PE around 20 and revenue growth > 20%, Websense's key stats compare favorably with similar players who have been acquired this year.





AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES


STOCK: ACLS
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY AMAT
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/26: 6.90
CURRENT PRICE: 6.96
TAKEOVER PRICE: $9-$9.50
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.06
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES: Axcelis Technologies delivers vital equipment, services and process expertise to the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Strong volume on 9/22 and good follow through on 9/25. We'll be tracking this for more signals



SEPRACOR


STOCK: SEPR
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY NVS
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/25: 46.60
CURRENT PRICE: 48.88
TAKEOVER PRICE: $55-$65
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +2.28
TIMELINE: within 1 month
PROBABILITY: 65%
NOTES: There has been quite a lot of speculation on Sepracor since Neurocrine Biosciences Indipilon didn't get FDA approval for its extended release version. Sepracor is currently trading at 22 times next year's earnings and their drug Lunesta could be lucrative to big pharma who can throw a much larger marketing budget toward the drug.


C-COR INCORPORATED


STOCK: CCBL
RUMOR: Unsolicited Bid of $12 on the table. Merril Lynch hired as an advisor
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/25: 8.61
CURRENT PRICE: 9.04
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.43
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 75%
NOTES: CCBL has a strong portfolio of broadband and on-demand products in use by a number of telecom firms such as ComCast and Verizon. Volume has been strong in September. As of 10/3 we have upped the probability on this one to 75%. We are hearing chatter that a deal will happen within a week.


BUILDING MATERIAL HLDC

STOCK: BMHC
RUMOR: Takeover rumors in the $40 range on the table. Home Depot a potential suitor
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED on 9/25: 25.99
CURRENT PRICE: 25.34
TAKEOVER PRICE: $40
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.65
TIMELINE: within 1 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: BMHC has been under pressure since the housing decline but has stabilized recently due to takeover rumors. Option premiums have been high for the last month with heavy call buying on 9/24



VIROPHARMA

STOCK: VPHM
RUMOR: TAKEOVER BY A LARGER PHARMA COMPANY
PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED on 9/25: 12.48
CURRENT PRICE: 11.94
TAKEOVER PRICE: $16-17
$ CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.54
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: Viropharma has had some positive press at the end of August from early trial results of its drug HCV-796 and around the time some rumors started circulating that the company would be subject to a takeover. The option calls are still very active with the Oct 12.5 call volume outnumbering the puts 15-1



--------------------------------------------------------------

DROPPED OFF LIST (Rumors that go stale or go past the expected timeline are listed here):
NONE

Company Spotlight - IRobot

Today's Spotlight

iRobot Corporation (IRBT)

iRobot Founded in 1990 by Massachusetts Institute of Technology roboticists, iRobot Corp. specializes in behavior-based robots that help people complete tasks with better results. Powered by iRobot’s unique AWARE™ Robot Intelligence Systems, the company’s robots can navigate in complex and dynamic real-world situations. To date, the company has sold more than 2 million iRobot Roomba® Vacuuming Robots worldwide, making it the best-selling consumer robot in history. Also, more than 500 iRobot PackBot® Tactical Mobile Robots have been delivered to a broad range of military and civilian customers around the world. These robots have performed tens of thousands of missions in Iraq and Afghanistan and are credited with saving scores of soldiers’ lives.

Bottom Line: Revenues for the second quarter of 2006 grew 33.5 percent to $34.6 million, compared with $25.9 million for the same quarter one year ago. Gross profit for the second quarter grew 86.6 percent to $11.8 million (34.1 percent of sales), compared with $6.3 million (24.4 percent of sales) in the second quarter of 2005. This growth in gross profit as a percentage of sales represents an improvement of 9.7 percentage points in Q2 of fiscal 2006 when compared to Q2 of fiscal 2005. Net loss in the second quarter of 2006 was $1.8 million, or $0.08 per share, compared with a net loss in the second quarter of 2005 of $3.1 million, or $0.30 per share. Also, as of mid 2006, iRobot had sold 500 Packbot robots to the US military including an IDIQ contract from the Navy. Under the terms of the IDIQ contract, the military could order up to $64.3 million in robots, spare parts, training and repair services through May 2008. The company has undertaken a strategy to build market share and brand awareness in the medium term while profits and margins may be under some pressure. The company also released the Scooba washing robot as well as the Dirt Dog utility robot in recent months. Sales could ramp up as we approach the holiday season and iRobot seems to be executing its strategy quite well. The stock price is currently around $20.53 as of 10/20/06 which could be a good entry point