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Saturday, September 30, 2006

Stock Rumors for 10/2/06

NEW RUMORS:

Today's rumor is listed below! Happy Trading
ESPD


STOCK: ESPD
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET

PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 10/2: 9.20

CURRENT PRICE: 9.20
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12

% CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.00%
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 35%
NOTES:
Lots of takeover rumors are swirling about ESPD and on Friday the volume picked up on the stock. There has been a lot of consolidation in this sector. We'll continue to keep an eye on this stock for more signals



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EXISTING RUMORS:


ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES INC


STOCK: ZBRA
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET

PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/28: 35.13

CURRENT PRICE: 35.13
TAKEOVER PRICE: low to mid $40

% CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.00%
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES:
With the consolidation in the RFID space, there is quite a bit of chatter that ZBRA is going to be acquired in the next 2 months and could already be in takeover talks (suitor still unknown). ZBRA also has an attractive patent portfolio that could be lucrative for a bigger player. Takeover value could be in low 40's





WINNEBAGO


STOCK: WGO
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET

PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/27: 32.05

CURRENT PRICE: 32.25
TAKEOVER PRICE: $36-40

% CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +0.60%
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 50%
NOTES: There has been speculation that Winnebago is in takeover talked due to its option implied volatility and its option volume which has consistently 4-6 times average volume. It is possible that with the recent pullback in gas prices that a potential suitor may see this as an appropriate time to pull the trigger before valuation increases



WEBSENSE


STOCK: WBSN
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY SYMC

PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/27: 22.02

CURRENT PRICE: 21.18
TAKEOVER PRICE: $26-30

% CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -3.80%
TIMELINE: within 4 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: With the recent consolidation in the network security space, There has been some heavy speculation that WebSense will be the next to fall with SYMC as the acquirer. With a forward PE around 20 and revenue growth > 20%, Websense's key stats compare favorably with similar players who have been acquired this year.





AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES


STOCK: ACLS
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY AMAT

PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/26: 6.90

CURRENT PRICE: 6.89
TAKEOVER PRICE: $9-$9.50

% CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.14%
TIMELINE: within 2 months
PROBABILITY: 45%
NOTES: Axcelis Technologies delivers vital equipment, services and process expertise to the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Strong volume on 9/22 and good follow through on 9/25. We'll be tracking this for more signals



SEPRACOR


STOCK: SEPR
RUMOR: TAKEOVER TARGET BY NVS

PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/25: 46.60

CURRENT PRICE: 48.66
TAKEOVER PRICE: $55-$65
% CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +4.30%
TIMELINE: within 1 month
PROBABILITY: 65%
NOTES: There has been quite a lot of speculation on Sepracor since Neurocrine Biosciences Indipilon didn't get FDA approval for its extended release version. Sepracor is currently trading at 22 times next year's earnings and their drug Lunesta could be lucrative to big pharma who can throw a much larger marketing budget toward the drug.


C-COR INCORPORATED


STOCK: CCBL
RUMOR: Unsolicited Bid of $12 on the table. Merril Lynch hired as an advisor

PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED ON 9/25: 8.61

CURRENT PRICE: 8.76
TAKEOVER PRICE: $12

% CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +1.74%
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 55%
NOTES: CCBL has a strong portfolio of broadband and on-demand products in use by a number of telecom firms such as ComCast and Verizon. Volume has been strong in September


BUILDING MATERIAL HLDC

STOCK: BMHC
RUMOR: Takeover rumors in the $40 range on the table. Home Depot a potential suitor

PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED on 9/25: 25.99
CURRENT PRICE: 27.17
TAKEOVER PRICE: $40

% CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: +4.54%
TIMELINE: within 1 months
PROBABILITY: 50%
NOTES: BMHC has been under pressure since the housing decline but has stabilized recently due to takeover rumors. Option premiums have been high for the last month with heavy call buying on 9/24



VIROPHARMA

STOCK: VPHM
RUMOR: TAKEOVER BY A LARGER PHARMA COMPANY

PRICE WHEN RUMOR RECORDED on 9/25: 12.48
CURRENT PRICE: 12.45
TAKEOVER PRICE: $16-17

% CHANGE SINCE REPORTED: -0.25%
TIMELINE: within 3 months
PROBABILITY: 40%
NOTES: Viropharma has had some positive press at the end of August from early trial results of its drug HCV-796 and around the time some rumors started circulating that the company would be subject to a takeover. The option calls are still very active with the Oct 12.5 call volume outnumbering the puts 15-1



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DROPPED OFF LIST (Rumors that go stale or go past the expected timeline are listed here):
NONE





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